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Felix R Savage's avatar

Great piece, ties in with several threads I've had on my mind. One observation. That shibboleth about "thinking twenty moves ahead" needs to be put to sleep. It is, as you imply, a psy-op in miniature--like the letters Ph.D, it serves to convince the hearer that there are people out there whose gargantuan intellectual prowess can judo the rest of us into oblivion. It unfortunately got traction on the dissident right with that meme about Trump playing 4D chess, too.

Reality is that chess grandmasters do NOT think twenty moves ahead. They recognize patterns based on their wide experience of all the ways chess games can go, and make moves to counter and exploit those patterns. It's the exact same thing each of us does every day in our daily lives and more so within our individual specialties. The myth of the political / medical / magical grandmaster is simply that, a myth.

Of course they know that themselves, secretly, which is why they're betting on AI: pattern recognition on the grand scale. And thus, one way to throw them off is to deliberately deviate from pattern. I'm reminded of how one academic refuted Skinner's contention that free will does not exist. Suddenly, in the middle of a conversation with Skinner himself, the man dived under his desk. "This is my answer," he shouted up from beneath it.

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Daniel D's avatar

-- "But the lab is not the wild."

Important insight, and one that has probably never occurred to any of these smug, self-proclaimed geniuses trying to conjure up all this dark magic. Your read on the situation is excellent, and taken together with John Carter's posts about "the Hydra" (https://barsoom.substack.com/p/the-great-convergence-i-pennywise), provides some real cause for optimism. Especially when the wizards' leadership is promoted for DEI purposes, rather than competence. Maybe they'll have some impressive and very expensive toys to play with, but they lack the imagination or skill to use those toys effectively in a dynamic environment. Before the wizards are able to figure out how to use their tools effectively, their opponents will have figured out a dozen ways to use the wizards' own tools against them.

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